July 12, 2025:
Last April Ukrainian drones were used to destroy a Russian drone factory in Tatarstan. The target was about a thousand kilometers from Ukraine. The Russian plant produced about 300 drones a day. Earlier in April Ukrainian drones destroyed a Russian munitions facility 200 kilometers east of Moscow. Before that Ukrainian drones attacked a Russian missile base in Kurk province, that borders Ukraine.
Meanwhile, NATO has supplied Ukraine with lots of weapons but declined to provide rockets or missiles that could reach military targets deep inside Russia. The longest range weapon the Americans have sent to Ukraine is the ATACMS, with a range of 300 kilometers. Last year Ukrainian long-range attacks eliminated numerous warehouses and bunkers containing Russian munitions along with vehicle and aviation fuel. This meant that for several months the Russians were unable to launch major military operations. Attacking with just infantry and no artillery or airstrike support proved suicidal and counterproductive. Russian infantry losses have been so heavy since 2022 that Russia is running out of untrained and ineffective infantry, and even equipment and weapons for replacements. Ukraine has no choice but to keep defending their country and now it appears that the Russian offensive operations will not only collapse, but that the Russian occupation forces in Crimea and eastern Ukraine are so thin that Ukrainian forces could regain these lost territories.
Recently Ukraine carried out a series of bold drone attacks deep inside Russia using a method they have used many times. Since there are many Russian speaking Ukrainians while Russian border guards and police are easy to bribe, Ukraine sent in dozens of trucks carrying what the drivers said, to Russians, was commercial goods. The real cargo was hundreds of drones programmed to attack military airbases deep inside Russia. The truck drivers drove to preplanned locations and, in the darkness, opened the crates to enable the drones within to be launched to fly off to nearby Russian bases.
The drones came in low, below what the airbase radars could detect. The attack destroyed or disabled a third or Russia’s long-range bombers. The cost to Russia was over seven billion dollars’ worth of aircraft that are no longer built. Now Russia plans to move the surviving bombers to even more distant bases, making these aircraft less effective against Ukrainian targets. These bombers usually carry long range air-to-ground missiles. Ukrainian drone strikes have previously attacked some Russian air bases where Russian MiG-31 fighter-bombers as well as Tu-22M and Tu-95 bombers are based. At least six of these aircraft have been destroyed or disabled before the recent series of attacks.
No one anticipated widespread use of drones. This has changed ground, air and naval warfare. Long range drone attacks are terrifying because the attacker does not risk the lives of pilots, who cost over a million dollars to train. Pilots lost in combat cannot be quickly replaced. Drones have no pilots and the men and women who build, program and in some cases operate drones are far from the combat zone. Ukrainian annual drone production now exceeds annual Russian artillery shell production.