June 26, 2025: North Korea has extended the service obligation for new recruits from eight to ten years for men and from five to seven years for women. This change is imperative because North Korea is running out of military age men. Women, on the other hand, comprise nearly half of the military age population. In 2021 the service terms were reduced from 13 to eight years for men and from eight to five years for women. That did not last because the number of military age North Koreans is plummeting.

Over the last decade the North Korean population has been declining. In South Korea, where personal income of twenty times what it is in the north, the decline is even higher. The south is suffering from a phenomenon common in affluent countries. Having fewer children becomes convenient and even fashionable among the female population. In poverty-stricken North Korea the population has suffered over seventy years of hunger plus repressive and dysfunctional rule by the Kim dynasty. Even the wealthy Kim family is running out of men and the next Kim to rule will be the sister of the current portly and sickly Kin Jong Un. She may be the last ruler from the Kim dynasty because over 70 years of misrule have trashed the economy and driven a growing number of North Koreans to risk everything to flee the country. Such illegal migrants face death in doing so. For several years North Korean border guards have been under orders to shoot-to-kill anyone approaching the border without permission.

The growing shortage of military-age men will require a reduction in the size of the army and the greater use of women. North Korean conscripts are basically a slave labor force for senior officers. Half the military age population is female. The government has long exempted women from military service if they have children. That is no longer an encouragement but a curse. Raising children in North Korea is seen by most locals as something no sane husband or wife would attempt. The price is too high and obstacles too numerous, plus there is an ever-present risk of starvation. In the south, the lower birth rates increased personal wealth. In the north the lower rates made the overall economic situation more desperate. This is one reason why North Korean leaders were so eager to provide weapons, munitions and men for their war in Ukraine. When these soldiers got to Ukraine, they were shocked at the levels of affluence enjoyed by the Ukrainians. This demoralized many of the North Korean soldiers. It also means they’ll be immediately imprisoned for life if they return, assuming they aren’t executed outright.

North Korea has long suffered from morale and loyalty problems in its armed forces. For example, in 2003 some 15,000 North Korean soldiers deserted in the previous two years and since then the desertions have continued and increased. Conditions in the North Korean army, never very pleasant to begin with, noticeably deteriorated in the last decade. There is less food and more corruption. Officers and senior NCOs are stealing food and other goods to support extended families. Discipline is breaking down and a generation of smaller, weaker, recruits, the result of ten years of post-Cold War famine, are more difficult to train.

The North Korean army, or Choson inmin gun, has benefited greatly from its participation in the Ukraine War. As a longtime ally of Russia, North Korea responded to calls from Russia to supply weapons, munitions and eventually troops for the Ukraine operation. North Korean support began in 2022 when North Korea supplied Russia with badly needed 152mm shells. North Korea sought to acquire priceless combat experience, test weapons systems, gain access to Russian military technologies, and secure Moscow’s further assistance in countering economic sanctions.

North Korea currently has one of the world’s largest armies with over a million active-duty soldiers. North Korea has not been directly involved in any major wars for over 70 years. Lack of battlefield experience is a source of considerable concern for North Korea anxious to counter South Korea’s more technologically advanced military. Now North Korean soldiers are learning the realities of modern drone warfare first-hand. These North Korean soldiers were young, motivated, disciplined, physically fit, brave, and good at using small arms. Russia pays North Korea $2,000 per soldier each month.

For North Korea the real prize was access to advanced Russian military technology. North Korea received support in increasing its anti-aircraft, submarine, and missile capabilities. Ukraine was a valuable testing ground for North Korea to assess the effectiveness of the weapons it supplied to Russia. Now North Korea can improve the quality of its own domestic arms industry and adapt future output to the realities of the modern battlefield. Troops who survive their time on the Ukrainian front lines were expected to return home and become instructors, sharing their knowledge of modern warfare with colleagues. Now it appears they will be lucky to be only as badly treated as Russian prisoners of war freed from German captivity were at the end of World War Two. At this point, North Korea’s participation in the Ukraine War looks to be less about supporting Russia's imperial ambitions and more about goodies from Russia.

In the short term, the presence of North Korean soldiers somewhat alleviated Russia’s manpower shortage, though Russia is still losing roughly a thousand troops a day due to President Putin’s insistence on suicidal attacks.

In 2023 North Korean leader Kim Jong Un traveled on his armored train into Russia to meet with Russian leader Vladimir Putin and discuss trade issues related to the Ukraine War. Russia needed more munitions, as in artillery shells and unguided artillery rockets. North Korea could also supply rifle and machine-gun ammunition but Putin was most interested in the artillery munitions, which Russian troops did not have enough of in Ukraine and Russia could not produce enough to meet the demand.

In return North Korea wanted technology related to advanced nuclear weapons. Russia was able to send more food, but the nuclear tech was another matter. North Korea uses its primitive nuclear weapons to threaten South Korea and Japan. North Korea is militarily belligerent but has relatively primitive military capabilities compared to South Korea, Japan and the United States.

China has long refused to supply North Korea with this kind of tech because of fears that North Korea would use it carelessly and recklessly. China disapproves of Russia providing this tech to North Korea. As a major economic trading partner with Russia, Putin cannot ignore the Chinese concerns. In the long term Russia needs China more than North Korea, but in the short term Russia needs more artillery ammunition, which North Korea will supply but China won’t.

Russia also needed replacements for artillery systems lost since early 2022. Russia still had reserves of artillery weapons and was refurbishing them as quickly as it could. Munitions for these weapons was another matter. The 122mm and 152mm howitzers are firing so many shells, a few thousand each, that some of them have worn out their barrels and need replacement barrels. North Korea had a lot of artillery compatible with Russian models but money shortages delayed needed refurbishments of these guns and access to refurbishment services is something North Korea will trade artillery munitions for. Russia can provide more food as well as assistance with refurbing North Korea’s elderly howitzers.