July 14, 2025: In Ukraine Russia is using munitions faster than they can be replaced. In 2021 Russia had vast stockpiles of Cold War era armored vehicles, artillery and munitions. Since the war began in early 2022, Russia has lost over 14,000 tanks and other armored vehicles. Russia has only one factory still producing tanks and its output is sent directly to Ukraine, where those new vehicles are disabled or destroyed within weeks. Until recently Russia received shipments of artillery and other munitions from North Korea and Iran.

The supplies from Iran have ended after a recent Israeli aerial blitz destroyed most of Iran’s weapons, reserves and factories producing munitions and weapons. Now Russia can only depend on what it produces. Russia admits that their heavily sanctioned economy is in trouble. Russia describes an imminent recession. Satellite photos reveal Russian railroads grinding to a halt. Russia is dependent on rail transportation far more than NATO countries. Russia is vast and there are few roads and not enough navigable rivers and canals.

Last year Western economic analysts predicted that the Russian economy would grind to a halt by August 2025. That prediction now appears accurate and the Russians have confirmed it. Russian leader Vladimir Putin remains defiant but he has few options when his troops run out of ammunition and replacement armored vehicles. The Ukrainians are already preparing to take back the Crimean Peninsula and the two eastern provinces Russia has held since 2014. The Russian reaction, or lack of action should be interesting to observe.