April 30, 2025: Ukrainian military officials are dismayed at how their NATO allies fail to appreciate how momentous the evolution of drone warfare has been. Individual NATO officers who have seen and understood the drone revolution are dismayed at how dismissive their superiors are when it comes to the drone revolution. Until NATO comes to its senses, any future Russian attack will overwhelm NATO defenders with millions of drones. Ukraine has manufactured over four million drones since late 2023 and production for 2025 may reach five million.

Air, land and naval drones have unexpectedly revolutionized warfare. These systems are evidence that combat robots have sneaked into the military, without many people in or out of uniform paying a lot of attention. That's still the case, especially because the media and even many senior military and political leaders don’t fully understand the technology nor how it is implemented. One example of this confusion can be seen with the constant reference to drones as robots. They are simply remotely controlled aircraft, something that’s been around for over half a century. But these drones are being given more and more operating autonomously robotic capabilities. This isn’t new either, as torpedoes have had this ability for over 60 years and missiles for over 50 years.

Swarms of First Person View/FPV drones are revolutionizing how wars are fought. There are few methods to defeat drone attacks. The primary defensive measure is electronic jamming of the control signal between the drone operator and the drone. Jamming is of limited effectiveness because active jammers are easy targets for drones programmed to detect, home in on and destroy jammers. Depending on how they are programmed, drones will either land if jammed or return to where they were launched.

Despite those defensive measures, and the small explosive payload drones carry, about half the armored vehicles damaged or destroyed in Ukraine were done in by drones. Training of drone operators is critical as it takes dozens of hours of operating drones to gain an effective skill level. Female soldiers can excel as drone operators while mostly avoiding the battlefield risk of death or injury. Unlike pilots of combat aircraft, drone operators are much less likely to be put out of action by death, injury, or capture. Drone operators are relatively close to the front lines and exposed to some risk, but not nearly as much as pilots. Such reduced casualties shorten the learning curve for drone operators and make them more dangerous faster compared to infantry whose effective combat lifetime is much shorter.

Drone warfare is increasingly common and dominating some combat zones. Tactics and techniques are also evolving as Ukraine and Russia both experiment with new tactics, techniques, and drone designs. Both nations are also increasing production of drones and the number of trained operators. Russia and Ukraine realize that drones provide unprecedented surveillance of the battlefield, but only if you have enough drones and operators. One solution for this shortcoming is operator software that enables one operator to control several drones. The number of drones one operator can handle simultaneously depends on operator experience. That cannot be manufactured but must be developed. Whoever can obtain the most trained operators has an advantage.

All these drone developments make combat more dangerous for the soldiers on the ground. Drones not only keep an eye on enemy troops but are always ready to go in and put them out of action, as in dead or wounded. Troops are still fighting each other on the ground, but now they have to worry about constant surveillance and attacks from the growing number of drones hovering over the battlefield. In addition to operators there are the drone maintainers, who repair damaged or otherwise disabled drones and service those needing a battery recharge or simply a fresh battery.

Ukraine’s military has established a Drone Academy to train drone operators in basic and advanced skills. There are courses for commanders on how best to manage and use drones. This is essential because now Ukrainian infantry battalions have nearly as many drones as troops. The American military likes to call this a force multiplier. This means a battalion with lots of drones is more effective, and lethal, than a battalion without so many drones. The Ukrainian military is the first to go so far in this direction and appear to be benefitting from the massive use of drones. Other nations are closely following this development and preparing to adopt what works for Ukraine. Russia is more conservative in how they deal with this, even though they are also using massive numbers of drones.

There are already dozens of Ukrainian companies offering training for drone operators and the Ukrainian military uses the services of these firms. In 2023 Ukraine sought to have more than 10,000 trained operators as quickly as possible. Drone operators specialize. Most learn to operate quadcopters while a large minority learn how to operate FPV drones, and a smaller number learn how to operate fixed wing drones. Ukraine has found that the most difficult operators to recruit and train are those for FPV drones. The Ukrainian military considers drone operators as a separate military specialty like infantryman, artillerymen, or radar operator.

In early 2024 Ukraine created a new branch of their military, the Unmanned Aircraft, or Drone Force. This is in addition to the Ukrainian Air Force and its manned aircraft. The Drone Force does not control the drones Ukrainian forces use regularly but will contribute to developing new drone models and organizing mass production for those new models that are successful. Drones have been an unexpected development that had a huge impact on how battles in Ukraine's current war are fought. Drones were successful because they were cheap, easily modified, and expendable.

Early on both Russian and Ukrainian forces were using cheap, at a few hundred dollars each, quadcopter drones controlled by soldiers a kilometer or more away using FPV goggles to see what the day/night video camera on the drone can see. Each of these drones carries half a kilogram of explosives, so it can instantly turn the drone into a flying bomb that can fly into a target and detonate. This was an awesome and debilitating weapon when used in large numbers over the combat zone. If a target isn’t moving or requires more explosive power that the drones can supply, one of the drone operators can call in artillery, rocket, or missile fire, or even an airstrike. Larger, fixed wing drones are used for long range, often over a thousand kilometers, operations against targets deep inside Russia.

Since 2022 the use of drones by both sides has escalated and so far millions of drones have been put to work providing surveillance and attack services for both sides. The Ukrainians consider drones another form of ammunition that is cheaper, smarter and far more effective and lethal than guided missiles or GPS guided artillery shells.

Small drones are difficult to shoot down until they get close to the ground and the shooter is close enough, as in less than a few hundred meters, away to successfully target a drone with a bullet or two and bring it down. Troops are rarely in position to do this, so most of these drones are able to complete their mission, whether it is a one-way attack or a reconnaissance and surveillance mission. The recon missions are usually survivable and enable the drone to be reused. All these drones are constantly performing surveillance, which means that both sides commit enough drones to maintain constant surveillance over a portion of the front line to a depth, into enemy territory, of at least a few kilometers. This massive use of FPV-armed drones has revolutionized warfare in Ukraine and both sides are producing as many as they can. Military observers from other countries are reporting that warfare has undergone a fundamental change because of the widespread use of drones in Ukraine. Many armed forces at peace are reluctant to change, despite the evidence from Ukraine that any future war will provide the more prolific user of drones with a significant edge in combat.

These drone have also revolutionized naval warfare. In early 2024 Ukraine built 35 Sea Baby seagoing drones. These are made of a material that is nearly invisible to radar. Each can carry up to 850 kg of explosives. Less explosives can be carried if you want the Sea Baby to travel farther. With a full load of explosives, it can reach targets up to 1,000 kilometers distant. Top speed is 90 kilometers an hour but more economical, in terms of fuel use, cruise speed is about half the top speed. That means it would take the Sea Baby about twenty hours to travel a thousand kilometers. That is a one way trip to a target, like a naval base or any ships docked at the base which is then attacked. Sea Baby navigates using several devices including GPS, INS, and short range sensors to detect and avoid obstacles. These sensors can also be programmed to identify and attack a specific target like a ship or other naval base facility. Sea Baby can also be equipped with short range weapons like explosive rockets that can hit targets a thousand meters distant with thermobaric/fuel air warheads. When used to launch rocket attacks, the Sea Baby can escape and return to a Ukrainian base for reuse. Some Sea Babys are equipped with video cameras to carry out reconnaissance and surveillance missions. In this case, communications equipment must be carried to transmit video or individual digital photos back to the Ukrainian base. The Ukrainians have been very imaginative and flexible in their use of these unmanned seagoing vessels.

Ukrainian naval drones have been successful in attacking and sinking or disabling Russian navy ships. So Ukrainian drones have sunk or disabled over half the ships in the Russian Black Sea. The longest range raids have been against targets in Kerch Strait and the Russian naval base at Novorossiysk, a thousand kilometers from the Crimean Peninsula. .

Ukrainian naval drone operations in the Black Sea forced the Russian Black Sea Fleet to withdraw to the eastern shore of the Black Sea. Sevastopol was no longer a safe place to be, and Russian ships could no longer launch their Kalibr cruise missiles without moving closer to Ukrainian territory and risking attack by Ukrainian drones. The presence and aggressive use of the naval drones means that Ukraine’s grain corridor has been kept open despite Russia’s threats to interfere. Beyond symbolic significance, the corridor holds critical economic importance for Ukraine.

The aggressive and successful use of Ukrainian naval drones against the Russian Black Sea fleet was unprecedented in the history of naval warfare. Not only were these naval drones tactically successful but financially as well. For example, new frigates cost about $1.5 billion each. That much money can also pay for 5,000 such naval drones. Destroyers cost twice as much. The frigates and destroyers are high seas ships and can travel all over the world. The naval drones operate in coastal waters although some of the larger naval drones can operate up to a thousand kilometers from where they were launched. These naval drones carry video cameras and satellite-based communications systems to collect information and, in peacetime, do so without fear of attack. Severe storms are another matter, but any storm damage will be broadcast as it is happening, at least until the video cameras or communications equipment is disabled.

Commercial cargo ships can carry hundreds of armed drones equipped with satellite communications so operators anywhere in the world can control them. These naval drones can be unloaded at sea and sent to carry out attacks on targets in the area or move to a nearby harbor and remain tied to a dock until needed. The only maintenance is keeping the naval drone batteries charged. These naval drones are a radical new weapon for naval warfare and the war at sea will never be the same because of the success of Ukrainian naval drones in their victorious war against the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

Nations with major warship fleets, like the U.S. and China, have much to fear from this new development of weaponized seagoing naval drones. These drones are difficult to spot visually, especially at night. Sonar can detect them, and autocannon equipped ship systems, like Phalanx, can be adapted to accurately target and destroy naval drones. Since the United States provides most of the military aid to Ukraine, they can get some cooperation from the Ukrainians that will help American warships and those of other NATO nations develop weapons and tactics to deal with naval drones. Because of the naval drones, Ukraine, which does not have a conventional navy, now controls most of the Black Sea.